The same storm set on bringing days of rain to portions of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region during Mother’s Day weekend could eventually transform into the first named tropical depression or named system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters say.
The system in question is still days away from taking shape, but even if a tropical or subtropical system doesn’t take shape, adverse coastal conditions loom for areas from New York to Florida.
The storm affecting part of the Northeast with soaking rain is in no hurry to leave the United States. Drenching rain, cool air and a stiffening breeze are intent on spoiling outdoor plans ranging from sporting events to weddings and graduations through Saturday. Enough rain will fall to lead to street and small stream flooding. The best bet for where dry weather and some sunshine is expected will be in upstate New York and central and northern New England.
Even though rain will slowly retreat from northwest to southeast across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, winds will kick up along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts this weekend.
By midday on Mother’s Day, clouds may break at times from the central Appalachians to the interior mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Cool conditions with highs ranging from the 50s to the mid-60s may still prompt the need for a jacket or sweater for those heading out for Mother’s Day dinners.
This weekend, including Mother’s Day, will be downright miserable right along the mid-Atlantic coast, forecasters say.
“From coastal New York to Virginia, east to northeast winds are likely to blow steadily between 15 and 30 mph with gusts frequenting 35-50 mph this weekend,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Stiff winds will persist along the mid-Atlantic beaches into the middle of next week and ongoing rough surf will cause episodes of coastal flooding and beach erosion, Dombek added.
During next week, these same rough conditions will also spread hundreds of miles farther to the south along the Atlantic coast to the Carolinas, Georgia and even northeastern Florida. Cities prone to coastal flooding during prolonged episodes of onshore winds and above normal tides include Wildwood, New Jersey; Norfolk, Virginia; Nags Head, North Carolina; and Charleston, South Carolina.
“Strong and frequent rip currents will spread southward as well,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
In the mid-Atlantic, water temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s will be a deterrent for swimmers. However, along the southern Atlantic coast, surf temperatures are mainly in the 70s and will tend to draw more people into the surf zone.
“The offshore storm will create a zone of cloudy, cool, windy and wet conditions along the southern Atlantic coast, during the first half of next week,” Lundberg said, adding, “the weather will trend warmer and more humid during the latter part of next week into the following weekend.”
That warmer and more humid trend in the Southeast region may lend a hint at some other goings-on over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the storm itself.
As the storm first enters Atlantic waters later this weekend, it will have chilly air near its center, which is typical for a non-tropical system. However, over the course of next week, there is some indication that the center of the storm will trend warmer since it will linger over warm water.
Because of the amount of time the storm will spend over warmer waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance it could develop some tropical characteristics. A storm that develops some tropical traits is known as a subtropical system.
“The chance of subtropical development is low, but not zero in this case from late next week to next weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
As of Friday, May 6, water temperatures along and a few hundred miles off the coast from northern Florida to North Carolina are generally below the threshold for a tropical development, which is approximately 77 F. However, there can still be some development as far as a subtropical or hybrid system in this case, especially if the center forms near the Gulf Stream where water is slightly warmer, Buckingham said.
Should the system develop a small, closed circulation with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph or greater, a subtropical depression could be declared by the National Hurricane Center. The first name on the list of tropical and subtropical storms for the 2022 season is Alex. In order for this to occur, the system would have to produce maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater.
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.
There have been seven straight years of pre-season development in the Atlantic with the most recent example being Tropical Storm Ana, which formed on May 22, 2021, over the middle of the Atlantic. The last storm to be named Alex developed just north of the Bahamas on Jan. 12, 2016, and went on to become the first Atlantic hurricane ever to develop during the first month of the year since Alice in 1955.
AccuWeather’s team of tropical weather forecasters, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, predicted that there would be a high chance for a pre-season storm in its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast which was released in late March.
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As of Friday, AccuWeather forecasters are focusing on an area southeast of the North Carolina coast to the northeast of Florida’s Atlantic coast to the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico as the zone with the potential for tropical development.
Soaking, non-flooding rain from a weak subtropical system that drifts onshore would generally be welcomed along the coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia late next week as much of the region is experiencing abnormally dry to severe short-term drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, due to weak steering currents in this area, there is also the possibility that any feature that forms could drop excessive rainfall in some locations, which could lead to flooding.
If the storm over the Atlantic wanders back toward the southern Atlantic coast, regardless of subtropical development or not, the clearing trend that begins late this weekend to early next week would cease and reverse. Clouds and showers could migrate westward from the mid-Atlantic to the central Appalachians during the second half of next week.
The storm forecast to stall and potentially evolve into a subtropical system in the western Atlantic next week is part of a much larger atmospheric traffic jam that will develop over much of the United States. The same pattern will lead to days of sunshine and allow a heat wave to unfold over part of the Central states, as well as a prolonged period of chilly, wet and snowy conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies.
