Just over a month remains before the non-waiver trading deadline, but with one-third of the teams already out of playoff contention, Major League Baseball is about to unleash its own Black Friday sale.
There’s no need to wait until July 31 with teams desperately wanting to unload high-priced talent for prospects or to simply dump payroll, with nine franchises already down by at least 100,000 in attendance than a year ago, according to MLB.com.
It’s going to be a buyer’s market, and now that the amateur draft is over, it could start a free-for-all.
The Baltimore Orioles should get three pitching prospects for prized shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, but likely will end up with only one among a team’s top 10.
The Toronto Blue Jays, whose attendance has plummeted a major-league worst 320,854 from a year ago, per MLB.com, and already are 17 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East, will dump All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson and listen to virtually everyone but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They’re hoping to move pitchers J.A. Happ, Tyler Clippard and John Axford, outfielder Curtis Granderson and infielder Yangervis Solarte, too. If the price is right, they may listen on starters Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, as well.
Yet, considering that Donaldson is earning $22 million, is a free agent after this year and has struggled throwing the ball to first base, baseball executives predict the Blue Jays won’t get nearly what they envisioned.
In an informal survey, baseball execs predict Machado is going to be traded to either the Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies or the St. Louis Cardinals, but not the Chicago Cubs.
The two most aggressive teams will be the Seattle Mariners, who already acquired closer Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span from the Tampa Bay Rays last month, and the Cardinals, who haven’t missed the postseason three consecutive years since the turn of this century.
The two biggest surprise teams are expected to go different directions at the deadline. The Phillies will be active, willing to trade prospects and pick up bloated contracts. The Atlanta Braves will ride the tide, so to speak, knowing that the first few months have been peachy, but they’ll stay patient and refuse to mortgage the future.
The two most passive big-market contenders, executives say, will be the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. They not only plan to stay under the luxury tax but won’t blow up their blueprint of trading prospects for rental players.
Oh, and for a friendly reminder how reluctant teams are to trade their prospects these days: the two World Series teams from a year ago acquired ace pitchers only at the last minute. I’m talking about the Dodgers’ pick-up of Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers, only when the Rangers reluctantly agreed to drop their asking price in the 11th hour. And the Astros’ Aug. 31 heist of Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers after every team passed, and he cleared waivers.
All Verlander did was help the ‘Stros win the World Series in October, anchor today’s finest rotation in baseball and is the leading candidate to win his second Cy Young with a 9-2 record, 1.61 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 100 innings.
So for those general managers deathly afraid of trading prospects, you may want to remember the Astros when you start your window shopping.
Just because I love baseball so much, and keep track of it (perhaps to a fault), let’s take a look at the top 10 players that could be on the trading block and where I think they’ll end up.
1. Manny Machado, shortstop, Baltimore Orioles – He’s on pace to hit 50 home runs this season while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at either shortstop or third base. PREDICTION: Philadelphia Phillies
2. Josh Donaldson, third baseman, Toronto Blue Jays – With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. around, the Jays have no intention of re-signing Donaldson. Still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. PREDICTION: St. Louis Cardinals
3. Cole Hamels, starting pitcher, Texas Rangers – Hamels, a four-time All-Star and 2008 World Series MVP, is just 3-6 with a 3.69 ERA, but has a postseason pedigree that would be ideal for any contender, particularly in the National League. The Rangers aren’t going to pick up his $20 million option in 2019. PREDICTION: Milwaukee Brewers
4. Kelvin Herrera, closer, Kansas City Royals – The best closer sure to be available and his stock is high with 14 saves and only two walks in 25.2 innings. PREDICTION: Cleveland Indians
5. Chris Archer, starting pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays – Considering the dearth of starting pitching on the trade market, and that Archer is under contract through 2021 for just $24 million after this season, the time is right to move him. PREDICTION: Chicago Cubs
6. Francisco Liriano, starting pitcher, Detroit Tigers – Everyone is asking the Tigers for Michael Fulmer, but he’s the 25-year-old guy you build around, not trade away. The Tigers are telling people that Liriano is readily available, however. He can provide invaluable depth for a contender, going 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA. PREDICTION: New York Yankees
7. Zach Britton, closer, Baltimore Orioles – Britton, who had surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon in December, has made three scoreless appearances since returning from the disabled list. He’ll be gone sooner rather than later. PREDICTION: Houston Astros
8. Mike Moustakas, third baseman, Kansas City Royals – Moose shrugged off his cold winter market, following up on last year’s franchise-best 38 homers with 13 more this year to go along with 46 RBI. PREDICTION: Cleveland Indians
9. J.A. Happ, starting pitcher, Toronto Blue Jays – Happ, 8-3 with a 3.48 ERA, striking out 94 batters in 82.2 innings, is pitching as well as he ever has in his 12-year career, developing into a strong trade chip for Toronto. PREDICTION: Seattle Mariners
10. Brad Bach, reliever, Baltimore Orioles – Brach is another free agent reliever that has no future in Baltimore. He’s an ideal setup man who can also close, with 26 saves the past two seasons. PREDICTION: Los Angeles Angels
Â
Â
