Barring a criminal conviction that either lands him in jail, under house arrest, or in some other status that prevents him from running for and holding office, Donald Trump is going to be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party for the third consecutive election this fall.
As veteran pollster Tom Jensen told NC Newsline recently, the notion that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley can somehow attract enough support to deny him the nomination is almost certainly fanciful. While she enjoys a good deal of backing from the anti-Trump wing of the party and some independent voters, those factions simply aren’t nearly large enough to overcome Trump’s overwhelming support among what has become the core of the GOP.
Meanwhile, over on the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is also clearly assured of renomination. While the president certainly has his share of doubters within his party who worry about his age and/or question his handling of the impossible quagmire in the Middle East, there is no other remotely viable alternative.
And third-party candidates? While the U.S. has had a few over the last several decades who attracted something more than a tiny share of the vote — most notably George Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992 — there is no indication that anyone is even remotely poised to make such an impact in 2024.
The implications of this situation are numerous — both for partisans and the nation.
As noted, the prospect of a second Biden term divides Democrats. A large and solid contingent holds Biden in great esteem as a remarkably successful leader who has used his decades of political and policy experience to, quite literally, rescue the nation’s economy and its democracy. Another group, however, is less enthusiastic. They yearn for a new, more youthful, and more oratorically gifted leader who will inspire younger generations and project a vision of change and progress — both at home and abroad.
Trump’s renomination is even more polarizing for many Republicans. While the former president’s support is broad and deep, a not insignificant chunk of the GOP and Republican-leaning voters share the view held by almost all Democrats that Trump is a criminal, a liar, and a profound danger to the country. As former Republican North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin observed in a recent op-ed published by Raleigh’s News & Observer, “they abhor Trump’s belligerent swagger and lack of integrity.”
Where this leaves the nation is, of course, something that will be determined over the next several months. But if there is a most interesting and important question to be answered during that period it quite likely revolves around the anti-Trump Republicans.
As Martin’s essay makes clear, this group recognizes the menace a second Trump term poses to the nation. They cling to their vision of what the Republican Party once was — the party of Reagan, the Bushes, McCain and Romney – and can’t abide Trump’s megalomania and serial dishonesty.
Unfortunately for Martin and company, the idea he suggests in which Trump might be denied the nomination via some kind of organized intervention by independents in GOP primaries is — like the idea that Haley can somehow convert a huge swath of Trump supporters to her cause over the next several weeks — a fantasy.
And so, much as they might despise it, the choice for Republican traditionalists like Martin will eventually come down to this: Trump vs. Biden — or more succinctly, policy vs. patriotism.
If they hold their noses and help Trump win in November, they’ll likely halt Biden’s domestic policy agenda and see some of their own priorities — lower taxes, less regulation of business, more conservative judges — implemented.
But as they’re also acutely aware, they’ll also be playing with a dangerous fire — a fire in which they themselves might eventually be consumed. This, since supporting Trump means aiding a man they recognize as a corrupt and treasonous liar, a likely criminal, a friend to the world’s dictators and, and an aspiring autocrat who could quite possibly engineer the demise of the two-plus centuries of democratic government.
It’s for these reasons that it’s not completely unimaginable that the Jim Martins of the country could eventually choose another path – one in which, as an act of national unity, they condemn Trump, support Biden’s reelection for the good of preserving the nation’s democracy, and vow to fight on for conservative principals in other elections and forums. Such acts are actually fairly common in other democracies — especially those with more than two major political parties.
Admittedly, such a scenario is a stretch. Years of Fox News propaganda have convinced many conservatives who ought to know better that Joe Biden is some kind of radical leftist, rather than what he is — a moderate Democrat from the same mold as Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton and Obama.
But ultimately, a national unity stance is no more farfetched than the idea that traditional Republicans can deny Trump the nomination. And unless something very big and very unexpected happens very soon, it’s one of only two plausible options from which they will be forced to choose.
NC Newsline Editor Rob Schofield oversees day-to-day newsroom operations, authors regular commentaries, and hosts a weekly radio show/podcast. Republished from ncnewsline.com.
