OPINION: Will North Carolina get an MLB team?

Although I have lived and worked in North Carolina for almost 50 years, I wasn’t born in this wonderful state. I was born and raised in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Like many people, I continue to root for the professional sports teams of my youth. In my case, in the early years of my life, there was only one pro team to follow — the Cincinnati Reds. But, with North Carolina frequently mentioned as the home for a Major League Baseball team, I may have to add a second team to follow during baseball season.

Major League Baseball is expected to expand from the current 30 teams to 32 teams by the early 2030s. There are also rumors that a couple of existing teams — the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays — may be considering relocating. When these changes are discussed, two cities in North Carolina — Charlotte and Raleigh — are mentioned as possible homes for an MLB team.

Of course, since professional sports is a business, economics must be considered when locating an MLB team. Three economic issues come up: feasibility, economic impact and financing for an MLB stadium.

Feasibility looks at the issue of whether the region is big enough and growing enough to support an MLB team. Population and population growth are the major measures for evaluating feasibility.

Using U.S. Census data for “combined metropolitan areas,” including Charlotte-Concord and Raleigh-Durham, the Charlotte metro area is already larger than five existing MLB metros, and the Raleigh metropolitan area is larger than two existing MLB metros.

Among the 10 cities mentioned by ESPN as contenders for an MLB team (San Antonio, Charlotte, Mexico City, Montreal, Nashville, Orlando, Portland, Raleigh, San Jose and Salt Lake City), Charlotte is larger than all but Mexico City, Montreal and Orlando, whereas Raleigh is larger than Nashville. In the last four years (2020–2024), Orlando had the fastest growth rate (12%), but was followed by Raleigh (9%) and Charlotte (8%). My conclusion is Charlotte and Raleigh are feasible options for an MLB team.

Economic impact considers the broad effects of an MLB team on regional income and regional jobs. Professional sports teams are expected to increase regional growth in income and jobs through several methods. If having an MLB team makes the region more interesting and fun to live in, then jobs and incomes can increase from more businesses and workers wanting to live in the region. If the MLB team causes regional residents to spend more of their entertainment money in the region rather than outside the region, then local businesses will benefit.

Last, and perhaps most important, if an MLB team can attract people living outside the region to visit the region for games and spend money on game tickets, food, lodging and other purchases, then this could be the biggest economic benefit from having a team. Indeed, an MLB team in Charlotte would likely pull fans from central and western North Carolina as well as from parts of South Carolina. Similarly, a team in Raleigh would see people driving from central and eastern North Carolina and from parts of Virginia to see a Major League Baseball team in person.

Estimating these economic impacts can be challenging. Predicting fan attendance and the origin of the fans can be difficult. Approximately half the earnings of MLB teams are paid to players. In addition, since not all players live in their team's home region, a part of the player salaries is not spent in the home region. Also, the analysis must account for the possibility of households reducing spending on alternative local activities when they spend on MLB baseball.

Economic impact studies of existing MLB teams in cities with similar populations to Charlotte and Raleigh show permanent new jobs created in the economy in the 3,000 to 4,000 range, and annual income generated in the $500 million to $1.2 billion range. However, as one who has completed numerous economic impact reports for a variety of situations, it is important to scrutinize the details of economic impact studies and assess the assumptions and calculations used to arrive at the conclusions.

The biggest roadblock to an MLB team in North Carolina may be the stadium where the team will play. An MLB team in North Carolina will likely require a stand-alone major league baseball stadium.

While multi-purpose stadiums were used in the past — the now demolished Cincinnati Riverfront Stadium hosting the Reds and the Bengals is an example — recent MLB stadiums have been built for baseball use only. The stadiums are also very, very expensive. The stadium in Las Vegas, currently under construction for the new Las Vegas Athletics, is expected to cost $1.75-$2 billion. The same price tag has been estimated for an MLB stadium in Orlando. Even the projected cost of expanding the minor league Charlotte Knights’ stadium for MLB use is between $500 million and $1 billion.

The obvious question is who will pay for the stadium? The owner or owners of the MLB team is an obvious answer, and this can happen. Between 70% and 80% of the new Las Vegas MLB stadium is being financed by the Athletics’ owner. The group behind the efforts to secure an MLB team for Orlando has announced the stadium would be completely privately financed.

In contrast, the Chicago White Sox have asked for $1 billion in city and state public funds to help finance a new stadium for the team. The Kansas City Royals MLB team is also recommending public financing for most of the cost of a new stadium. Therefore, MLB stadium financing options span from using all private money to using all public money, with options in-between.

My conclusion is that both Charlotte and Raleigh appear to be viable candidates for an MLB team. But what will be the economic impact? Will the economic impact be worth the cost? And who will pay for an exclusive MLB stadium? Should these questions be answered before we begin picking names for an MLB team in either city? You decide.

Mike Walden is a Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University.